Wednesday, October 27, 2004


This is interesting. The only prediction I will make is that the Democrats will whinge about being 'robbed', if they lose that is.

I am cajoled by return of email to make a prediction, 'just for the fun of it'.

So, purely on the basis of Saturday's FT, 'Bush could win popular vote but lose electoral college' :  1. Kerry     2. -00.5     3. 005  (the reverse of Bush 2/Gore 2000.

The real fun would be to see if the Republicans were still whining about it in 4 years time. One obvious parallel with 2000 is 1960. I heard somewhere that Nixon had almost as good a case as Gore's. Or the 1966 British election...

It's a shame the table doesn't go back to 1940. Phillip Roth has a novel out in which Lindbergh beats Roosevelt and so 'the American "old right", isolationist and bordering on pro-fascist' I mentioned previously came to power.


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